[Lew Shin-mo's Focus on Foreign Affairs] What Is Wrong with the "Good-Enough Deal"?

The United States decided to lead negotiations with North Korea the "American way." The attitude displayed by U.S. President Donald Trump in the second summit with North Korea in Hanoi was a clear refusal of sequential and phased negotiations starting from building trust and improving relations to a peace system and denuclearization mentioned in the Singapore agreement a year ago. The American way means to first clearly define denuclearization and describe what the concept means, to draw up a blueprint leading to the final stage, and then to take actions accordingly. Washington says that it is implementing the Singapore agreement, but in reality, its aim is to create a comprehensive agreement to replace the agreement signed in Singapore, which includes a phased structure.

Such a fundamental approach is not wrong. But if this was what they wanted, they should have promoted it from the start. It is not something that they should bring up now, two summits later and nearly a year after the two state leaders signed an agreement. Trump's words that a proper agreement is necessary is a confession that the agreement he signed in Singapore was not proper and at the same time it expresses his intention, that he will not be tied to the agreement any longer. Since the U.S. has moved the goal, it is understandable that North Korea feels it is not fair. But this is reality. For North Korea, one slip of the foot in the negotiations can mean the end, but the U.S. has the power to right its mistakes.

North Korea was not the only one that was surprised. Cheong Wa Dae was also more than slightly alarmed. Yet the change of attitude by the U.S. was not abrupt. It had continued on in this way since shortly after the Singapore agreement. There is no way that Cheong Wa Dae could not have known that. However, in any case, Cheong Wa Dae wanted the relationship between North Korea and the U.S. to advance forward. South Korea came across an underwater rock while waiting for North Korea and the U.S. to quickly sail pass the point of no return by building the structure of inter-Korean economic cooperation on top of the foundation of a poor Singapore agreement.

Now the situation is back to square one. North Korea and the U.S. have to start from the beginning and discuss ways to proceed with the negotiations. Cheong Wa Dae is trying to find common ground between Pyongyang's phased approach and Washington's comprehensive approach. It seems to be seeking a compromise, such as a comprehensive agreement and phased implementation. But that's not easy.

The U.S. wants to simultaneously take parallel tracks to promote a comprehensive agreement. Simultaneous means the sequencing of corresponding measures and parallel means a three-dimensional approach that handles all the elements of the negotiation, such as denuclearization, bilateral relations, and security assurance concurrently. At first glance, it seems similar to the phased approach, but actually it is completely different, because to reach a comprehensive agreement, all the elements of the negotiation have to be discussed.

The U.S. approach is fundamental, but it makes it difficult to reach an agreement. In Hanoi, President Trump described the final picture of denuclearization that the U.S. wanted. For a comprehensive agreement, Chairman Kim Jong-un will also have to describe the final picture of denuclearization that he wants. Then the two countries will have to put all the issues on the table, including denuclearization measures, ways to normalize the relationship between the two countries, and specific measures to assure the safety of the North Korean regime, and reach an agreement. This will include issues, such as the U.S. Forces Korea and the nuclear umbrella as well as military issues.

It is unclear as to whether North Korea will follow the American way, but even if it does, it will be even harder to reach an agreement. That is why Trump keeps saying that he will not hurry. North Korea gave up on lifting sanctions early on and is preparing for a long battle calling to develop the nation with its own efforts. For Cheong Wa Dae, which desperately needs an "early harvest," this is indeed a difficult situation.

Cheong Wa Dae should stop being impatient about trying to suture the relationship between North Korea and the U.S. It should focus on maintaining the current peace and promote a process to establish peace on the Korean peninsula including denuclearization from a long-term perspective. What we need now is not fast progress, but steady progress that does not move back. In order to do that, Cheong Wa Dae needs to get rid of the idea of enjoying the fruits while it is in office and concentrate on laying the groundwork. Completing denuclearization and establishing permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula while maintaining inter-Korean relations and the alliance with the U.S. are not something that will happen in a couple of years.

Cheong Wa Dae should pay more attention to denuclearization, which is the basic premise in resolving problems on the Korean Peninsula. Since its inauguration, the Moon Jae-in government has concentrated more on the future of the Korean Peninsula based on the progress in denuclearization rather than on denuclearization itself. Even now, there seems to be no change to the thought that it can draw a picture of the future of the Korean Peninsula based on progress between North Korea and the U.S., just as long as it can get the two countries to meet and make progress in any way possible. This is evident in the irresponsible expression, such as a "good-enough deal," voiced from within Cheong Wa Dae. The future of the Korean Peninsula is of course important, but concentrating on a sophisticated strategy to achieve denuclearization, which is the premise of everything, should be first and foremost.

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