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South Korea’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) ranking will likely rise to ninth this year even as it is set to record its first economic contraction in 22 years.
Korea’s nominal GDP is expected to fall 1.8 percent to $1.54 trillion in 2020, according to a forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Monday.
This would place Korea, which came 12th last year, above Brazil, Canada and Russia. Canada’s economy is projected to contract 7.5 percent this year. Russia’s nominal GDP is predicted to shrink 14.1 percent and Brazil's to drop 3.9 percent.
The U.S. would maintain its No. 1 title with a nominal GDP of $20.2 trillion, despite a 5.7 percent decline. China will come next with $13.83 trillion, followed by Japan with $4.85 trillion, Germany with $3.56 trillion, India with $2.72 trillion, Britain with $2.45 trillion, France with $2.38 trillion and Italy with $1.73 trillion. The top eight would be unchanged from 2019.
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Korea’s per capita gross national income (GNI), however, is expected to fall below the $30,000 threshold first achieved in 2018 due to the economic contraction and weaker won.
The latest poll on economists by state think-tank Korea Development Institute forecast a 0.9-percent fall for the Korean economy this year. The Bank of Korea projected the economy to shrink 0.2 percent to 1.8 percent in the worst case scenario.
Asia’s fourth-largest economy contracted 3.3 percent in the second quarter, deepening from a fall of 1.3 percent in the first quarter.
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