ROKS Cheonan & the Sewol Covered All Other Issues: Will D-ruking and the Summit Shake the Elections?

In every election, big and small variables unexpectedly emerge. Sometimes, a single issue can determine the election landscape or expand to become the major agenda in the race. It can change the position of the ruling and opposition parties from the offensive to the defensive and determine the outcome of the election. As of April 23, the June 13 local elections are now fifty days away. We would like to examine the variables in the upcoming local election based on past examples.

⊆ ROKS Cheonan and the Sewol: A Backlash and a Typhoon

The power of such unexpected variables was proven in the two local elections held in the past decade. The sinking of the ROKS Cheonan just before the June 2 local elections in 2010 and the Sewol accident, which occurred ahead of the June 4 local elections in 2014, are major examples of such surprise variables.

The sinking of the ROKS Cheonan occurred on March 26, 2010, just 68 days before the local elections. At the time, the hottest election issue was free school lunches. The race was one between universal welfare and selective welfare, and with the start of official election campaigns, interest was on the opposition's efforts to stand behind a single candidate. However, as the view that North Korea was behind the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan gathered strength, the "North Korean factor," which had strongly influenced past elections, seemed to influence the voters. On May 20, almost two weeks before Election Day, a joint investigation team of the military and civilians announced that an attack by a North Korean torpedo was the cause of the sinking. Four days later, President Lee Myung-bak announced the May 24 measures, which basically suspended all inter-Korean exchanges. However, despite the conservative ruling party's claims of a security crisis―a favorite weapon used by the conservatives―it brought about the opposite result. The ruling Grand National Party only won six of the sixteen mayoral and gubernatorial positions of major cities and provinces. The ruling party barely managed to win in the elections for the mayor of Seoul and the governor of Gyeonggi-do after a close race. The North Korean factor backfired.

On April 16, 2014, 49 days before the local elections, the Sewol sank. Since the elections were held not long after President Park Geun-hye, known as the queen of elections, entered office, the ruling Saenuri Party had the advantage before the Sewol tragedy. The opposition party, which had been incompetent in the first year of the Park Geun-hye government, newly launched as the New Politics Alliance for Democracy in March that year, but an election victory was not in sight.

However, the Sewol tragedy soon became a black hole in the local elections, rapidly changing the nature of the race. The opposition party called for judgment on the failure to rescue the victims of the Sewol and the ruling party called to eradicate long-established irregularities and to reform the state. Both the ruling and opposition parties pledged safety measures first. The massive surprise variable gobbled up all other issues. The result of the mayoral and gubernatorial elections in the major cities and provinces turned out to be a virtual tie: eight victories for the Saenuri Party (current Liberty Korea Party) and nine victories for the New Politics Alliance for Democracy (current Democratic Party of Korea).

⊆ D-ruking and the Summit and Any Other Variable?

With fifty days left until the June 13 local elections this year, the manipulation of online comments by D-ruking has emerged as a variable. At present, the authorities are investigating the alleged connection of lawmaker Kim Kyoung-soo, Democratic Party of Korea candidate for governor of Gyeongsangnam-do, and the details of how D-ruking used Macro to manipulate the number of likes. An investigation by a special prosecutor cannot be ruled out, so this case is expected to have more than a small influence on the elections. If the investigation discloses any involvement of the party, financial transactions, and additional attempts at manipulating information online, the impact of this case will be unpredictable.

The inter-Korean summit on April 27 and the summit between North Korea and the United States expected in late May or early June are also major variables. Although they are "fixed" variables in that they are expected, it is still difficult to predict the process and outcome of the summits, making them a serious issue. Kim Joon-hyung, a professor at Handong Global University said, "So far, the discussions on the summit have gone smoothly, so it's difficult to see this as a variable," yet he also predicted, "If preparations hit a wall or go awry for the North Korea-U.S. summit, or if North Korea makes excessive demands, the voices of the opposition could get louder."

Some experts argue that variables that are predictable cannot be seen as a variable. Park Sung-min, an advisor and the head of Min Consulting, said, "Generally, what everyone knows cannot be regarded as a variable." He added, "Everyone is aware of the D-ruking incident and the inter-Korean and North Korea-U.S. summits, so they are in some ways already reflected. Something we do not know will emerge as a variable."

The controversy surrounding the single Team Korea at the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, the North Korean senior officials' visit to South Korea, and the #MeToo campaign including the rape allegations involving Ahn Hee-jung, former governor of Chungcheongnam-do, which shook the nation about a hundred days before the elections, were surprise variables in nature, but they have already been reflected in the current race.

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