Editorial: The rising risks of Putin and Kim Jong-un’s nuclear playbook

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang last June. / Yonhap

Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for Russia’s use of its nuclear weapons. The updated Russian nuclear doctrine allows for a nuclear response by Moscow even if a non-nuclear state attacks Russia with the support of a nuclear power. This change comes after Ukraine used U.S.-made longer-range missiles to strike Russian territory, meaning Russia could consider a nuclear strike in response to a conventional attack in the future. The U.S. shut its embassy in Kyiv on Nov. 20 and evacuated staff, citing intelligence on a “potential significant air attack.”

On the same day, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported to the National Assembly that “North Korean troops deployed to Russia had been assigned to local airborne brigades and marine units, with some allegedly participating in combat.” Regarding a meeting between North Korea’s foreign minister and Putin, the NIS suggested that “important and sensitive discussions likely took place,” raising the possibility of a potential visit to Russia by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command speculated that Russia might transfer nuclear-powered submarine technology to North Korea in exchange for its military support. If North Korea were to deploy nuclear missiles on submarines capable of unlimited underwater operations, it would pose a significant threat to Seoul. Such a move would allow Pyongyang to issue direct “nuclear attack” threats with greater confidence.

Whenever the war turned unfavorable for Russia, Putin has resorted to nuclear threats. At the onset of the war, he placed Russia’s nuclear forces on “special alert,” essentially pressuring Ukraine to surrender and warning the West to cease intervention and lift sanctions against Russia. Following Ukraine’s attack on the Russian region of Kursk in August, Putin announced plans to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine. The new doctrine, recently updated, signals a willingness to use nuclear weapons not just for self-defense but also for aggression. Putin’s actions demonstrate how authoritarian leaders with nuclear weapons can exploit them for coercion.

Kim Jong-un’s ambitions could be even more reckless. Long before North Korea had a fully developed nuclear arsenal, Kim threatened the U.S. and South Korea with potential “nuclear strikes,” famously warning of a “sea of fire.” In 2013, he enacted a law authorizing the use of nuclear weapons against any adversary. By 2017, following the regime’s sixth nuclear test, he openly threatened to attack South Korea with nuclear weapons. He has since labeled South Korea as an “enemy” and ordered the mass production of tactical nuclear weapons. More recently, Kim has reiterated the importance of boosting North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and emphasized preparedness for war.

Caught between two nuclear-armed adversaries, South Korea has no nuclear arsenal of its own and lacks a unified national consensus on how to address these escalating threats.

[The Chosunilbo]

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